Let's Make A Deal: Ukraine Style

As the war in Ukraine entered its second year, it would appear at the very minimum that US officials have not been pushing Ukraine to publicly advocate for peace talks with its Russian adversary. Oddly enough, US officials assert that they are not interested in pressuring Ukraine to make concessions, because it was Russia who commenced this tragedy and therefore, it is Russia who then must make amends. The US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan has called for Russian troops to simply withdraw from Ukraine. One would say from such a statement that this is not a framework for negotiations between adversaries but a dictation of an armistice by Ukraine. It is true that in the conflict Ukraine holds the moral high ground. The Ukrainians were victims of Russian aggression and revanchism but that is not what peace treaties or negotiations are predicated upon. Currently, Ukraine has publicly pursued a policy objective in which their armed forces will regain the territories lost to Russia since the beginning of hostilities. But is this feasible? US officials must be quietly asking themselves whether they have given Ukraine a “Blank Check,” a policy whereby the US gives Ukraine unquestioned diplomatic and military support and Ukraine pursues its own self-interest. In this context, the US has failed to ask what are plausible American interests in the conflict? A long drawn out war with massive casualties, immense physical devastation and a possible deterioration of the standard of living of Europe on account of higher energy costs cannot be part of a desired conclusion. Historically, blank checks have not gone well. Prior to the outbreak of WWI, Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany issued the infamous blank check to the House of Habsburg which allowed Austria-Hungary to pursue its aims with unquestioned German support. The result of this unilateral action was WWI and the destruction of the Habsburg (Austria) and Hohenzollern (German) empires, and the eventual unleashing of the nihilistic power of communism, fascism and Nazism upon the face of humanity. The US and its NATO allies have provided enormous amounts of aid which have enabled the Ukrainians to perform beyond expectations on the battlefield. Yet, this aid has not propelled Ukraine to victory and with the leaking of US documents, it would appear in the short term, the likelihood of a decisive outright Ukrainian military victory is minimal, if not nonexistent. Without this aid, it is unlikely the Ukrainians would have reached this level of success, or possibly survived, therefore the US and NATO have the right to lay out a negotiating position and then pressure the adversaries to reach an agreement. Such a position may not be popular with the Ukrainians but national interests are rarely symmetric. Ukraine has vowed to fight until all territory has been regained but the Ukrainian President was receptive to Chinese peace overtures. If the Ukrainians are willing to sit down at the peace table, the commencement of any negotiations must comprehend Clausewitz’s dictum which states, “war is politics by other means.” Russian military forces occupy 20% of Ukrainian territory and its armed forces have created fortified defensive positions against any possible Ukrainian offensive. In the meantime, President Putin has intimated it is the duty of a historically “great” Russian leader to expand Mother Russia’s boundaries beyond what the leader inherited. Therefore, unless Ukraine can dislodge Russian troops from within its borders, more than likely Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia. If Ukraine’s often discussed 2023 summer offensive fails, then the Western powers should encourage negotiations between the adversaries. Ukraine may possibly desire to fight on, but in the short term how will the outcome be any different? The sheer number of deaths, casualties and the destruction of the country should motivate Western negotiators to seek a settlement and to pressure Ukraine to accept. Ukraine could be satiated if dangled with the opportunity for NATO membership. But more than likely such an invitation to join NATO will not be forthcoming because in part Russia will oppose such a union. But that is not all. Problematic for the Ukrainians is that many of the member NATO countries would be, to say the least, lukewarm to such a proposal since such an agreement will bring the alliance to the front lines of a future prospective war between the two current combatants. Russian arguments that Ukraine falls within its traditional sphere of influence should not fall on deaf ears since Ukraine had been part of a Russian political configuration from the era of the Romanov Czars to the period of the Soviet Empire. But this does not mean Russia holds all of the negotiating cards. Russia’s attack on Ukraine was meant to be a quick, decisive blow against an unsuspecting foe. Kyiv was to be captured, the political infrastructure of the country dismantled and then Russia would subsequently annex its vanquished foe. Well, the best made plans have a strange way to go awry and the scenario mentioned above did not play out according to intent. Instead, Russian forces were stymied and its military was forced to alter its attack from a broad based offensive on the country, including an assault on Kyiv, to a concentrated strike in the eastern portion of the nation. Vaunted Russian military capabilities have proven to be far from omnipotent which should result in a tamping down of fears of future Russian aggressions into the former Soviet European Empire. This is not all. There are a number of long term factors which plague Russia such as the declining lifespan for males, an overall decrease in the population and the dependency of the Russian economy on the energy sector. Moreover, the Russian economy is puny when compared with the technologically advanced and diversified leviathan economies of the US and the EU. What does this mean? In the long term, time is on the side of the West and Ukraine. Russia may appear at this moment to have the upper hand but due to the factors discussed above, Russia is a great power in decline and to borrow a term from the past, the sick man of Europe. Therefore, negotiators should meet, look at the current battlefield, discuss, bargain, agree grudgingly and then announce to the world “peace is at hand.” At least for now.