IRAN: THE UNFOLDING DRAMA

The Curtain Falls or the Saga Continues

Before 10-7, Iran hovered over the Middle East like a dark, omnipotent villain in an unfolding drama.  The shadowy figure of the Islamic Republic was ominously cast over the chessboard which made up the politics of the Middle East.  The Iranians had their archenemy Israel surrounded on all fronts.  The pseudo Nazi Party, Hamas controlled Gaza, while the terrorist group Hezbollah had long established hegemony in Lebanon, the proto fascist Bashar Assad reigned in Syria, and various pro Iranian militias dotted Iraq and Yemen.  Since the Islamic revolution of 1979, Iranians of all classes would gather on Fridays at prayers and chant death to America and to Israel and bellow for the demise of the “Great and Little Satans.” Finally, the Iranians believed their hour had arrived, a time of atonement and victory, on 10-7 terrorists from Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza slaughtering 1200 innocent people and taking scores hostage.  Pictures of the atrocities plastered social media and the Palestinians openly took great pride in their evil handiwork.  In the early stages, the operation was an unmitigated success with Israel being caught off guard and thrown back on its heels.  But the victory by Hamas was short lived and Israel regrouped and counterattacked on multiple fronts.  The IDF pressed forward obliterating Hamas fighters in brutal house to house fighting in Gaza.  Hamas, in its usual form, put heavy weapons in hospitals, schools and homes and cried foul when Israel destroyed these strongholds.  Israel pushed through Gaza, slowly dismantling the Hamas leadership, army and morale.  To the north, over the past 15 years, Hezbollah had been preparing for war, training soldiers, gathering supplies and deploying missiles that were in striking distance of Israel.  With the Israelis engaged in Gaza, the fear was that the Jewish state would be overextended and the pro-Iranian groups would regain the initiative on other fronts.  But then in rapid fashion, the IDF attacked north, destroying Hezbollah fighters and their missile capability. Within a short period of time, Hezbollah’s forces were dismantled, its army neutralized and its ability to assist Iran in operations aborted.  The destruction of Hezbollah had serious implications for another pro-Iranian partner, Syria which had relied on Hezbollah fighters to provide security for the Assad regime. Without Hezbollah, the Syrian Army would prove to be paper tigers against anti-Assad elements.  These opponents of the  Assad regime attacked towards Damascus forcing Assad and his cronies to flee to Russia as the Syrian Army folded and collapsed without much resistance in the face of this onslaught.  The ring which surrounded Israel was rapidly imploding as the initial attack on 10-7 appeared to be a significant miscalculation.  Yet, pro-Iranian Houthi forces in Yemen were still in the field.  Originally, the Houthis had waged war against international shipping in the Red Sea region.  At first, western forces were hesitant to engage the Houthis but the new Trump Administration changed previous American policy and openly challenged them with air and naval attacks. But the Houthis were not destroyed or deterred and continued to join in the war against Israel.  In the meantime, the Israeli air force had taken apart Iranian air defense systems, leaving the Jewish state in complete control of Iranian air space.  In spite of this, the Iranians had managed to attack Israel with land based missiles, often targeting  civilian areas and causing casualties.  But for Israel, the prize was Iran’s nuclear weapons program which was deeply entrenched underground in a mountain and in other locales.  As Israel pounded targets inside Iran, the sites associated with the weapons program remained relatively unscathed. As the conflict escalated, the Israelis would appear to have retained the upper hand, but it would seem the war had reached a tipping point.  Could Israel with air power alone deliver the knockout blow, to not only destroy the Iranian nuclear program, but to end the Iranian regime itself?  Or would the Israeli bombing campaign destroy valuable infrastructure but leave the nuclear weapons program scarred, but intact? And would the regime be weakened but still fully in charge, ready to continue a policy of mayhem.  Now the wild card in this equation would be the entry of the United States and its bunker busting bombs into the conflict.  After many internal discussions within the current administration, the US has entered the fray but US bombs do not necessarily mean success will be achieved.  Since the US has intervened, how will success be measured without verification on the ground?  And within Iran who has the power to challenge the authority of the regime?  Throughout the country, there has been little movement by any opposition groups to end the war with Israel as well as to topple the regime in Tehran.  So the drama faces two possible conclusions. The villain in the story could be vanquished, with a fiery ending, weapons destroyed with a popular uprising with the people taking power with a new government renouncing terrorism.  Or in another scenario, the villain bombed, wounded and scarred survives, the regime is battered but intact with a pending sequel to the drama forthcoming and possibly scarier than the first installment.